Built because the tools didn't exist
A decade of enterprise AI work, one breaking-point moment, and a founding team that decided to build what strategists actually needed.
From a Fortune 500 semiconductor crisis to a new category of analytical tool
Artur Kiulian spent a decade building AI decision-support products for Fortune 500 enterprises in energy and manufacturing — repeatedly watching C-suite teams navigate macro crises with spreadsheets and gut instinct. The breaking point came during a client engagement in 2022 when a Fortune 500 manufacturing firm was blindsided by cascading semiconductor shortages that their risk tools had failed to trace from a Taiwan factory pause through three downstream effects.
Existing risk tools flagged individual supply nodes but had no mechanism to model how disruptions propagate across interconnected systems. No product existed that could take a geopolitical trigger event and systematically trace its cascading effects through supply chain, then credit, then demand — at the speed strategy teams actually needed.
Kiulian assembled a founding team of geopolitical analysts, causal inference researchers, and enterprise software engineers in Los Angeles to build a proof-of-concept for the manufacturing client — a causal graph engine that could take the Taiwan factory scenario and simulate its second and third-order effects across the client's specific operational footprint. The proof-of-concept delivered scenario outputs in 8 minutes that had taken consultants six weeks.
Turning uncertainty into competitive advantage
To give every strategic organization the analytical power to see around geopolitical corners — turning uncertainty from a threat into a competitive advantage.
Values that shape every product decision
Intellectual rigor over comfortable narratives
We build tools that challenge assumptions, not tools that confirm them.
Scenario depth over surface-level dashboards
Complexity doesn't disappear when you simplify it; we give you the full picture.
Transparent probability over false precision
We quantify uncertainty honestly, so boards can make better-informed decisions.
Client strategy success over product vanity metrics
Our measure of success is whether your strategy survived the next macro disruption.
Early access — three macro risk families
Backed by SMRK and advised by former senior analysts from RAND Corporation and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Principle entered early access in 2024 with a focus on corporate strategy teams facing China-Taiwan exposure, tariff volatility, and financial sector contagion scenarios — the three macro risk families where clients reported the greatest analytical gap.
China-Taiwan Exposure
Supply chain and semiconductor risk modeling for Asia-Pacific dependent enterprises.
Tariff Volatility
Trade policy cascade modeling across manufacturing, retail, and logistics sectors.
Financial Contagion
Banking system stress-testing and credit contagion scenarios for institutional investors.
Supported by SMRK
Principle is backed by SMRK and advised by former senior analysts from RAND Corporation and Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research — bringing strategic depth to both our product and our growth.
Meet the teamReady to stress-test your strategy?
Request a demo and we'll walk through a scenario relevant to your organization's specific risk profile.